Opinion: Analysis of my 10 favorites for the 2019 Tour of France, the Tour of uncertainty

Tour de France 2019, without Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin, looks particularly open and full of uncertainty. Fate has played a trick on Froome and Dumoulin and because their falls they are notably absent. Since Roglic ran the Giro he will not run the Tour.

My list of 10 favorites to win the Tour confirms the enormous uncertainty of this Tour 2019. And I left out great cyclists that in the Tour can dazzle and cause huge surprises.

To set my favorites for the Tour de France 2019 I have taken into account the following criteria:

1. The form in this season.
2. His recent past in Grand Tours (SGs).
3. The quality of its team particularly performance in the team time trial (CRE) and support in offensive and defensive tasks.
4. Mountain performance, particularly in the high mountains.
5. His performance in the individual time trial (CRI).
6. Performance in the most highly likely scenarios that will define the final standings.

My undisputed favorite should be Geraint Thomas, the 2018 Tour champion, but its form is uncertain. My second favorite, the Colombian prodigy Egan Bernal, 22, is too young and first runs as a leader in a Grand Tour (GV). My third favorite is Nairo Quintana, but his Movistar team is not expected to offer full support he needs as a potential Tour winner.

1. Geraint Thomas

My assessment

Being the brilliant 2018 Tour champion, Geraint Thomas is my favorite number 1 to win the Tour de France 2019. With reference which can give shape is optimal when their scores on criteria from 2 to 6 are excellent. It is the best of the favorites in the CRI, his team ensures excellent CRE, outstanding protection in defensive tasks and the perfect conditions for their attacks in the final kilometers of the important ports. If your form was similar to the 2018 Tour should win with relative ease.

Where they can be their weaknesses

His biggest weakness is that it has had a very irregular season and had to withdraw from the Tour of Switzerland by a sharp drop. His form may be relatively far from optimal. Tour only know his real form and if competitive compared to its rivals.

2. Egan Bernal

My assessment

Team Ineos and wisdom to win the Tour de France which enabled the Colombian prodigy Egan Bernal is my favorite number 2. Their potential in the comparative Tour looks fabulous. Their scores on other criteria are excellent but Egan Bernal has virtually a past in GVS experience sparsely 2018 Tour, which performed brilliantly as a domestique. But it is that a 22 year old is almost ridiculous favorite classify the most demanding GV. If I could keep 3 weeks what has been their level in the Tour of Switzerland or Paris Nice, Egan can win the Tour if Thomas shows some weakness.

Where they can be their weaknesses

Egan Bernal however wonder that it has no experience as head of a WT team in a Grand Tour. A total uncertainty is how it will digest the enormous pressure of the Tour. Fortunately for him runs on the computer that best knows how to win a Tour. In addition, Plan A is Geraint Thomas and the atmosphere in the team is fabulous. 

3. Nairo Quintana

My assessment

Nairo Quintana is a prodigious climber with fabulous achievements. Nairo the 2019 season suggests that will reach the Tour de France in a great way. Mountain Tour, by height and type of ports, comes in handy to Nairo. Ideally age 29, he has won Giro and Vuelta, it has been second twice and third once the Tour. The first time was second in the Tour was 23. Individually it has everything to win the 2019 Tour.

Where they can be their weaknesses

His greatest weakness looks to be the lack of a team that offers what Thomas Ineos offers and Bernal. It seems that Movistar repeats its "strategic horror" of 2018 with two explicit leaders, Nairo Quintana and Mikel Landa on equal terms, without defining Plan A and B, a leader in the shade, Alejandro Valverde, and limited to protect equipment a leader both. Inexplicably Winner Anacona is not on your computer when you had a good season and is a man of confidence for Nairo Quintana.

Both the CRE and the CRI will lose time with Ineos leaders.

4. Thibaut Pinot

My assessment

Thibaut Pinot is a fabulous rider who has many of the features required in a potential winner of the Tour de France. Ideally age, 29 years. His form in 2019 has been good and can be potentially excellent in the Tour. It has a team totally committed to his cause. 

Where they can be their weaknesses

Pinot has in its favor that runs in his country and has against the pressure of being the great French hope has always cost him a lot. Its potential is extraordinary but very irregular. His team is good but probably less than Ineos and teams of their rivals.

You will waste time on the CRE and the CRI with Ineos leaders and can not be sure that will outperform its main rivals rising. It has clear competitive advantages.

5. Rigoberto Urán

My assessment

Rigoberto Uran already know what it is to be second in the Tour de France behind Chris Froome. Their scores in all criteria are excellent. You can give a tremendous stick and win the Tour because he knows himself invisible when you need it and appear when it is decisive. His team is excellent and is exclusively devoted to his cause. 

Where they can be their weaknesses

His condition is comparatively uncertain. His performance in the CRIs is not very regular. It does not have clear competitive advantages over their sagacity and experience. 

6. Romain Bardet

My assessment

Romain Bardet represents the second great French hope to win the Tour. It has already been second in the Tour, perfectly knows the route and has a good team at your disposal. Their scores in all criteria are good or very good. In an exceptional way he could win the Tour.

Where they can be their weaknesses

His status is uncertain and comparatively the pressure is on his back is huge. You will lose important time in both the CRE and the CRI with Ineos leaders and not see them out where you can benefit them and their rivals.

7. Adam Yates

My assessment

Adam Yates at its best can win the Tour. He had had a great 2019 season, but in the Dauphiné retired with stomach pains. Has an excellent team handed over to him completely. His brother, Simon Yates, will potentially be a gold gregarious.

Where they can be their weaknesses

Comparative his fitness for the Tour is a big unknown. 

8. Jakob Fuglsang

My assessment

Jakob Fuglsang has had an outstanding 2019 season. He is supported by an excellent team. If kept in the Tour what has been shown in the season so far you could win the Tour.

Where they can be their weaknesses

In SGs Fuglsang history is poor. Its competitive advantages in a GV are far from clear. And he is 34 years old.

9. Mikel Landa

My assessment

Mikel Landa is an extraordinary climber in an exceptional way and supported by a fabulous team could win the Tour. Coming to run the Giro comparative form does not look optimal. Suffers from the same problem Nairo Quintana. Runs on a computer that will not support background but will offer you a complex environment with a lot of stress. If Movistar corriese with great intelligence he and Nairo could increase very significantly their chances.

Where they can be their weaknesses

Mikel Landa part double disadvantage. Its shape is very uncertain ahead of the Giro where wear was enormous. And his team is no guarantee of support.

Certainly it will spend time in both the CRE and the CRI with Ineos leaders and their potential shape after bending Giro - Tour, do not see where I can take advantage. 

10. Richie Porte

My assessment

Richie Porte has the potential winner of a Tour. He has had a very irregular season. His record in SGs is disappointing. 

Where they can be their weaknesses

Porte is a favorite with the most uncertain way. His record in SGs increases uncertainty and age, 34, does not help much. 

Conclusion 

Given the uncertainty generated by this 2019 Tour, it is prudent to present the favorites grouped by the average number of stars of my evaluation. The order of the riders with the same number of stars is high to low favoritism.

1. FIVE STARS: Geraint Thomas, Egan Bernal and Nairo Quintana.

2. FOUR STARS: Thibaut Pinot, Rigoberto Uran, Romain Bardet and Adam Yates.

3. THREE STARS: Mikel Landa, Jakob Fuglsang, Richie Porte and Vincenzo Nibali.

4. TWO STARS:  Steven Kruijswijk, Dan Martin, Emanuel Buchmann and Enric Mas.   

5. A STAR  Fabio Aru, Rohan Dennis, Wilco Kelderman and Bauke Mollema